ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research This report is also available as a PDF file . CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months. In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. ...

Recent surveys suggest that U.S. citizens are increasingly dissatisfied with President Obama's leadership, primarily because unemployment remains high. What people fail to realize, however, is that economic recovery frequently takes time, regardless of the actions taken by political leaders. Billionaire Warren Buffett understands this and conveyed his feelings to the President. Political leaders frequently receive too much blame for poor economic performance and too much credit for prosperity. A better understanding of the sources of economic growth might make public perceptions more accurate. In the July 16 Reuters article " Buffett warns Obama U.S. economy only halfway back ," Alister Bull summarizes Buffett's claim that the economic recovery will take time, regardless of the country's leadership. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama heard a sobering message from Warren Buffett when he asked for the investment guru's views about the economic reco...

In the April 12, 2010 article " AP survey: Recovery to remain sluggish into 2011 ," Associated Press economics writer Jeannine Aversa says a survey of economists suggests U.S. economic growth will remain quite modest until at least 2011. "Among the first survey's key findings: • The unemployment rate will stay stubbornly high the next two years. It will inch down to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 8.4 percent by the end of 2011. The rate has been 9.7 percent since January. When the recession started in December 2007, unemployment was 5 percent. • Home prices will remain almost flat for the next two years, even after plunging an average 30 percent nationally since their peak in 2006. The economists forecast no rise this year and a 2.3 percent gain next year. • The economy will grow 3 percent this year, which is less than usual during the early phase of a recovery and the reason unemployment will stay high. It takes growth of 5 percent for a year to lower th...

In the April 6, 2010 U.S. News & World Report article How To Tell When The Recession Is Really Over , Rick Newman says "the recession is officially over, but many Americans won't feel the recovery until these things happen." There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel. The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good. Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, ...

In the January 2, 2020 article " Poster child for recession shows signs of recovery ," Associated Press writer Charles Wilson says Elkhart, Indiana, one of the cities hit hardest by the Great Recession, is showing signs of economic recovery: ELKHART, Ind. – When Ed Neufeldt introduced Barack Obama at a speech in Elkhart County in February, the new president promised the laid off RV worker would find a job. Since then, Neufeldt has found two, setting up bread displays in grocery stores and working with a company that hopes to hire hundreds of people to make electric motors. "If I was on unemployment, I'd be bringing home more money than I bring home from both jobs," said Neufeldt, 63, of Wakarusa. "But that's OK, I want to work and I feel like I'm helping the economy a little not being on the unemployment ranks." Obama has visited the northern Indiana county four times — twice during the 2008 campaign and twice since — focusing attention on the ...