ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research This report is also available as a PDF file . CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months. In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. ...

8 Problems That Could Trigger a Double-Dip Recession

In the July 1, 2010 article " So what exactly is a 'double-dip' recession? ," Associated Press economics writer Jeannine Aversa explains the answer: WASHINGTON (AP) -- Concerns are rising that the economy is at risk of slipping into a "double-dip" recession. High unemployment, Europe's debt crisis, a slowdown in China, a teetering housing market and sinking stock prices are all weighing on a fragile U.S. recovery. So what exactly is a double-dip recession? Robert Hall has an idea of what one looks like but no precise definition. He's chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists that officially declares the starts and ends of recessions. In Hall's view, a double dip is akin to a continuous recession that's punctuated by a period of growth, then followed by a further decline in the economy. The NBER doesn't define a double dip any more specifically than that, says Hall, an economics professor at Stanf...

In the April 6, 2010 U.S. News & World Report article How To Tell When The Recession Is Really Over , Rick Newman says "the recession is officially over, but many Americans won't feel the recovery until these things happen." There are two kinds of recessions: the one that economists measure, and the one that ordinary people feel. The official recession is over. That's because the economy is growing again after a sharp decline, with GDP back to the levels of mid-2008. For people who have kept their jobs, suffered no loss of income and enjoyed a rebound in their investments thanks to the year-long stock market rally, things are pretty good. Then there's the unofficial recession, which clearly persists. More than 8 million people have lost their jobs over the past two years, and the economy has barely started to add those back. Many others have had their pay or hours cut. The housing bust, in its fourth year, still isn't over. Foreclosures continue to mount, ...

In the January 4, 2010 New York Times article " Lax Oversight Caused Crisis, Bernanke Says ," Catherine Rampell reports that the Federal Reserve chairman blames regulatory failure for the economic decline of recent years: ATLANTA — Regulatory failure, not low interest rates, was responsible for the housing bubble and subsequent financial crisis of the last decade, Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said in a speech on Sunday. Mr. Bernanke’s remarks, perhaps his strongest language yet assessing the roots of the financial crisis, came as he awaited confirmation for a second term as Fed chairman and as he sought greater regulatory authority from Congress. “Stronger regulation and supervision aimed at problems with underwriting practices and lenders’ risk management would have been a more effective and surgical approach to constraining the housing bubble than a general increase in interest rates,” Mr. Bernanke said in remarks to the American Economic Association. Mr....